AGU Revised Statement on Climate Change: "Human induced climate change requires urgent action:

from Eli Rabett, Rabett Run, August 5, 2013

The AGU has issued its revised statement on climate change, approved by the fifteen member committee chaired by Gerald North with one (predictable) dissent. 

Human induced climate change requires urgent action.

Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years.

Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes.

Human activities are changing Earth’s climate. At the global level, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping greenhouse gases have increased sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel burning dominates this increase.  Human caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8 °C (1.5 °F) over the past 140 years. Because natural processes cannot quickly remove some of these gases (notably carbon dioxide) from the atmosphere, our past, present, and future emissions will influence the climate
system for millennia. 

Extensive, independent observations confirm the reality of global warming. These observations show large scale increases in air and sea temperatures, sea level, and atmospheric water vapor; they document decreases in the extent of mountain glaciers, snow cover, permafrost, and Arctic sea ice. These changes are broadly consistent with long understood physics and predictions of how the climate system is expected to respond to human caused increases in greenhouse gases. The changes are inconsistent with explanations of climate change that rely on known natural influences.

Climate models predict that global temperatures will continue to rise, with the amount of warming primarily determined by the level of emissions. Higher emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to larger warming, and greater risks to society and ecosystems. Some additional warming is unavoidable due to past emissions.

Climate change is not expected to be uniform over space or time. Deforestation, urbanization, and particulate pollution can have complex geographical, seasonal, and longer term effects on temperature, precipitation, and cloud properties. In addition, human induced climate change may alter atmospheric circulation, dislocating historical patterns of natural variability and storminess.

In the current climate, weather experienced at a given location or region varies from year to year; in a changing climate, both the nature of that variability and the basic patterns of weather experienced can change, sometimes in counterintuitive ways -- some areas may experience cooling, for instance. This raises no challenge to the reality of human induced climate change.

Impacts harmful to society, including increased extremes of heat, precipitation, and coastal high water are currently being experienced, and are projected to increase. Other projected outcomes involve threats to public health, water availability, agricultural productivity (particularly in low latitude developing countries), and coastal infrastructure, though some benefits may be seen at some times and places. Biodiversity loss is expected to accelerate due to both climate change and acidification of the oceans, which is a direct result of increasing carbon dioxide levels.

While important scientific uncertainties remain as to which particular impacts will be experienced where, no uncertainties are known that could make the impacts of climate change inconsequential. Furthermore, surprise outcomes, such as the unexpectedly rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice, may entail even more dramatic changes than anticipated.

Actions that could diminish the threats posed by climate change to society and ecosystems include substantial emissions cuts to reduce the magnitude of climate change, as well as preparing for changes that are now unavoidable. The community of scientists has responsibilities to improve overall understanding of climate change and its impacts. Improvements will come from pursuing the research needed to understand climate change, working with stakeholders to identify relevant information, and conveying understanding clearly and accurately, both to decision makers and to the general public.

Adopted by the American Geophysical Union
December 2003; Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007, February 2012, August 2013.

The 15-person panel that reviewed and updated the position statement included the following:

• Amy Clement, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami (approve)
• John Farrington, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (approve)
• Susan Joy Hassol, Climate Communication (approve)
• Robert Hirsch, U.S. Geological Survey (approve)
• Peter Huybers, Harvard University (approve)
• Peter Lemke, Alfred Wegener Institute (approve)
• Gerald North, Texas A&M University (approve, panel chair)
• Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University (approve)
• Roger Pielke Sr., University of Colorado Boulder (dissent)
• Ben Santer, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (approve)
• Gavin Schmidt, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA (approve)
• Leonard A. Smith, London School of Economics (approve)
• Eric Sundquist, U.S. Geological Survey (approve)
• Pieter Tans, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (approve)

It is notable here that the committee was quite willing to vote the statement out based on a strong consensus but not unanimity. As Eli noted in December last after attending the Fall AGU meeting, climate scientists are not only 97% for the proposition that the climate is changing driven by human influences but that it is also dangerous.  Action to stop carbon emissions is needed immediately.

The mood of the attendees had shifted.  It was much sourer about the few in the atmospheric science community still running interference for inactivism.  People were being called out in private, but also in public and not just in sessions dealing with education and communication and blogging.

It is now clear to the climate science community that keeping your head down has not been an effective option for climate scientists for quite a while (see Kathryn Hayhoe).  The denialists and their funders are  coming for you in the Niemoeller sense, sooner or later.  This means that many in the community have woken up.  Those who do not, or believe they cannot, are feeling guilty about not supporting the science they are part of.  Those folks need to be encouraged and supported and come out.
http://rabett.blogspot.com/2013/08/revised-agu-statement-on-climate-change.html

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Completely disgraced Heartland Institute apologizes for its lies to the Chinese Academy of Sciences

The Shoe Drops on the Table

by Eli Rabett, Rabett Run, June 15, 2013

On Thursday, Eli went to an interesting debate at R Street about whether a carbon tax was the best way to organize the response to climate change.  R Street an offshoot of Heartland, formed when Heartland jumped the billboard shark.  Led by Eli Lehrer, R Street basically represents the interests of the insurance industry, in a lobbying sort of way.  Eli took notes, more on the debate later
James Taylor from Heartland represented the forces of darkness, e.g., the lumps of coal.  Eli had a chance to talk with him later after he did the Gish gallop on another guy (more on that later).  The Rabett provoked by asking what Taylor's POV was about the BRICs, the C being played by China, the others being Brazil, Russia and India, and Taylor replied in so many words that China was moving to their side as evidenced by the translation of the NIPCC report and the seminar to be held Sat in Beijing.  Eli remarked in passing and no further, that Taylor would be wise to count his cards.
Heartland just pulled the ace of spades. Their friends in the Chinese Academy of Sciences just posted a demand letter

The Chinese translation of the “Climate Change Reconsidered—NIPCC report” was organized by the Information Center for Global Change Studies, published in May 2013 through Science Press, with an accompanying workshop on climate change issues in Beijing on June 15, 2013. However, the Heartland Institute published the news titled “Chinese Academy of Sciences publishes Heartland Institute research skeptical of Global Warming” in a strongly misleading way on its website, implying that the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) supports their views, in contrary to what is clearly stated in the Translators’ Note in the Chinese translation.

The claim of the Heartland Institute about CAS’ endorsement of its report is completely false. To clarify the fact, we formally issue the following statements:

(1) The translation and publication of the Chinese version of the NIPCC report, and the related workshop, are purely non-official academic activities the group of translators. They do not represent, nor they have ever claimed to represent, CAS or any of CAS institutes. They translated the report and organized the workshop just for the purpose of academic discussion of different views.

(2) The above fact was made very clear in the Translators’ Note in the book, and was known to the NIPCC report authors and the Heartland Institute before the translation started. The false claim by the Heartland Institute was made public without any knowledge of the translator group.

(3) Since there is absolutely no ground for the so called CAS endorsement of the report, and the actions by the Heartland Institute went way beyond acceptable academic integrity, we have requested by email to the president of the Heartland Institute that the false news on its website to be removed. We also requested that the Institute issue a public apology to CAS for the misleading statement on the CAS endorsement.

(4) If the Heartland Institute does not withdraw its false news or refuse to apologize, all the consequences and liabilities should be borne by the Heartland Institute. We reserve the right for further actions to protect the rights of CAS and the translators group.
Information Center for Global Change Studies,

Scientific Information Center for Resources and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, June 14, 2013.

Heatland's announcement has again vanished but the grovel has appeared (Tip of the ear to Big City Lib) from Jim Lakeley

The following statement was released today by Heartland Institute President Joseph Bast:

 "Earlier this week, the Information Center for Global Change Studies, an Information group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, published a Chinese edition of 'Climate Change Reconsidered,' translating and combining the contents of two volumes in a series with the same title previously published by The Heartland Institute.
"Some people interpreted our news release and a blog post describing this event as implying that the Chinese Academy of Sciences endorses the views contained in the original books. This is not the case, and we apologize to those who may have been confused by these news reports.

"To be clear, the release of this new publication does not imply CAS and any of its affiliates involved with its production 'endorse' the skeptical views contained in the report. Rather, as stated in the translator's preface of the book, 'The work of these translators, organizations and funders has been in the translation and the promotion of scientific dialogue, does not reflect that they agree with the views of NIPCC.' "

Clearly they hope to have Fred Singer exfiltrated from Beijing with no further collateral damage; however, some bunnies, not Eli to be sure, have been web citing like crazy.

For those of you interested in how not to dance with the dragon, Stephan Lewandowsky has the instructions:

 Anyone familiar with the activities of deniers will recognize that this affair follows a fairly standard three-step template: First, a spectacular announcement is made that is at the very least misleading if not outright mendacious. Then, true skeptics (usually scientists) discover and correct the misrepresentation. Finally, the responsible party retreats into its shadowy lair of irresponsible ideology with an "apology" that blames a "confusion" on parties unknown.

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-shoe-drops-on-table.html

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Was the Chinese Academy of Sciences mislead by the Heartland Institute's faux "science"? A bunny might think so

Porkie Pies at Midnight

by Eli Rabett, Rabett Run, June 13,2013

And so begins a very tangled tale, which is yet developing.

The short of it is explained in a letter that a number of bloggers have received from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, but starting there would be little fun.  It actually begins with a web page put up by Eli's friends at the Heartland Institute

CHICAGO (June 12, 2013) – The Chinese Academy of Sciences has translated and published a Chinese edition of Climate Change Reconsidered and Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report, two hefty volumes containing more than 1,200 pages of peer-reviewed [hardly!] data on climate change originally published by The Heartland Institute in 2009 and 2011. . .

and

The Chinese Academy of Sciences will present the new publication at a “Ceremony of Climate Change Reconsidered and the Workshop on International Climate Change Science Viewpoints” on Saturday, June 15, in Beijing with the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) . Click here to read the Academy’s press release announcing the publication of Climate Change Reconsidered.

What! ##% the Bunnies ask, the Commies and the Libertarian Corporatist Right playing together?

The news tell us that  libertarians have developed a fondness for the 中 middle kingdom.  Eli rather suspects it is a misreading of the ethos of the place where bunnies can get away with anything except being noticed or envied by the powers that be, in which case they turn into stew.

Well, the Heartland page has gone up and down and up a couple of times since then.  It now appears to be up, but just to be sure Eli has taken a copy, but the Click Here link to the CAS page is now down; however, it remains in the Google Cache where the Rabett reads:

NIPCC is what its name suggests: an international panel of nongovernment scientists and scholars who have come together to understand the causes and consequences of climate change. In 2009 and 2011, NIPCC publicized two reports named Climate Change Reconsidered, providing evidences the IPCC ignores and questioning the proposal of IPCC that climate change is caused by human greenhouse gas emissions.

China information center for global change studies of CAS edited and published the Chinese version of “Climate Change Reconsidered: Report of the NPICC” to facilitate Chinese scholars’ understanding the opinions of NIPCC. The International Symposium of Global Changes is held on this occasion to enhance exchanges on the new advancements internationally and researches. A press conference will be held, with lead authors of NIPCC reports Craig D. Idso (USA), Robert M. Carter (Australia), S. Fred Singer (USA) and many other prominent scholars of the field presenting.

The Press Conference is maybe to be at a hotel in Beijing on Saturday.  Developing as they say but the first clue as to what is going on in the website is not the CAS website but the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.  While somebunnies may think that the CAS is  the Royal Academy or the NAS of China, it also runs STEM graduate education in China.  Before 1978, there were no doctoral degree granting institutions in China (something to do with western imperialism) partially explaining why so many Chinese came out to the west for degrees.  UCAS is the overarching institution which runs doctoral training through Chinese universities.  Looking at the downed page, one sees a contact email which points to the Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library of the CAS:

Lanzhou Branch Library mainly collects print and digital resources about earth sciences, resources and environmental sciences, chemistry & chemical industry, nuclear science and electronic technology, as well as documents and information resources on applied mathematics, biology, computer science and other general documents and information. Lanzhou Branch Library has a special collection of literatures about cold regions, arid regions, polar regions, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Loess Plateau resources and environment, natural calamities and engineering.

The CAS, of course, has a position on climate change.  It is a signatory on the Joint Academies Statement on the Global Response to Climate Change

We urge all nations, in the line with the UNFCCC principles, to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies. As national science academies, we commit to working with governments to help develop and implement the national and international response to the challenge of climate change.

and has issued a recent report on the threat of climate change to China

Global warming threatens China's march to prosperity by cutting crops, shrinking rivers and unleashing more droughts and floods, says the government's latest assessment of climate change, projecting big shifts in how the nation feeds itself.

The warnings are carried in the government's "Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change," which sums up advancing scientific knowledge about the consequences and costs of global warming for China -- the world's second biggest economy and the biggest emitter of greenhouse gas pollution.

So Eli imagines that the CAS was none too pleased by the NIPCC report translation and press conference.  Upon inquiry, they responded

Thank you for your attention to the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The news that you saw on the website of UCAS is actually a careless mistake caused by translation and compilation.

There is indeed a book named "Climate Change Reconsidered" to be published in China by the Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library,  CAS, with a book release on June 15th. However, this is only a book cooperation between the Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library and Heartland Institute, and is limited only to copy right trading, with no academic research work involved.

A few CAS experts participated in the translation of the book, aiming to demonstrate different voices in the global scientific field to the Chinese science community, however, that does not mean that we CAS joined the research or agree with their view point; neither does it mean that CAS will decide "promote" the climate "skeptic" view or group.

Attached are the cover of the book and the preface by the president of Heartland and translator's preface by the curator of the Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library, expressing their own viewpoint, respectively.

UCAS is formerly the Graduate University of Chinese Academy Sciences ( GUCAS) and is renamed as UCAS (http://english.ucas.ac.cn/Pages/default.aspx) in 2012 with the official approval of the Ministry Education of China. It is one of the two universities owned by the CAS, with the other one called the University of Science and Technology of China (http://en.ustc.edu.cn/),

Thank you again for your attention to the CAS and here is our website (http://english.cas.cn/) and the website of the Lanzhou Branch of the National Science Library (http://english.llas.cas.cn/), please stay focused on our research progress, any of your suggestions will be warmly welcomed.

If you have any questions on CAS, please do not hesitate to ask.

Mistranslation is always useful.  But, as Eli said, developing, certainly the folks in Mordor think that they have a win, but maybe not so much as they think as the heavyweights in the CAS take note.  Nails that stick out getting hammered is not only a Japanese principle.

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Oxford University's Myles Allen kisses the carbon capture and storage frog (and possibly Shell Oil's behind)

Courtesy of a nice rabett:

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2013/06/myles-allen-kisses-frog.html

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Stefan Rahmstorf: Arctic sea ice and cold weather in Northern Europe and Northeastern U.S.

Melting Ice and Cold Weather

Translated by the inestimable Eli Rabett from an article by Stefan Rahmstorf  [] are translation notes, March 29, 2013

The media are debating if the decrease in  Arctic ice  is related to this winter's cold weather in Germany. This post discusses the most recent current research about this including the most important figures from relevant studies.

First, what does the unusual temperature distribution observed this March actually look like? Here is a map showing the data (up to and including March 25, 2013; NCEP / NCAR data plotted with KNMI Climate Explorer):

 
Freezing cold in Siberia, reaching across northwestern Europe, unusually mild temperatures over the Labrador Sea and parts of Greenland and a cold band diagonally across North America, from Alaska to Florida. Averaged over the Northern Hemisphere, the anomaly disappears - the average is close to the long-term average. Of course, the distribution of hot and cold is related to atmospheric circulation, and thus the air pressure distribution. The air pressure anomaly looks like this:

There was unusually high air pressure between Scandinavia and Greenland. Since circulation around a high flows is clockwise [anticyclone], this explains the influx of arctic cold air in Europe and the warm Labrador Sea. 

Arctic sea ice

Let us now discuss the Arctic sea ice.  The summer minimum in September set a new record low, but also at the recent winter maximum there was unusually little ice (ranking 6th lowest - the ten years with the lowest ice extent were all in the last decade). The ice cover in the Barents sea was particularly low this winter.  All in all until March the deficit was  about the size of Germany compared  to the long-term average. Is there a connection with the winter weather?

Is there a relationship with the winter weather?  Did the disappearing ice influence the atmospheric circulation, because the open ocean, strongly heated the Arctic atmosphere from below?  (The water is much warmer than the overlying cold polar air.) Did the resulting evaporation of sea water moisten the air and thus lead to more snow? These questions have been investigated by several studies in recent years, .

Petoukhov and Semenov, (JGR 2010)

These two scientists from the Potsdam Institute and the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel used the ECHAM5 atmospheric model.  As a boundary condition in a series of simulations they reduced ice cover in the Barents and the adjacent Kara Seas. With a mean reduction in ice volume similar to what we now see, they calculated the anomaly in the pressure distribution shown below:

Thus, abnormally high air pressure between Scandinavia and Greenland. Leading to the following temperature anomaly:

Cold from Siberia to Western Europe and a heat bubble centered on Labrador - quite similar to the temperatures this March.

Jaiser et al. (Tellus 2012)

Our colleagues from the Alfred Wegener Institute, together with U.S. researchers, examined the question of whether one finds this relationship in observational data. For this purpose, they investigated the correlation between the distribution of air pressure distribution and ice cover in an analysis of their covariance. They concluded: 

Our analysis suggests that Arctic sea ice concentration changes exert a remote impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation during winter 

The following graph from this work shows how the distribution of air pressure in winter changes between phases of low and high fall-ice cover in the Arctic:

You can see that low ice cover correlates with high pressure in the Arctic winter, again between Scandinavia and Greenland - just as in the model calculations of Petoukhov and Semenov (Jaiser et al. do not show temperature maps).

Liu et al. (PNAS 2012)

Next on the dance card is a study which appeared shortly thereafter by researchers from the U.S. and China, which approached the problem from both sides: model simulations and data analysis. The following map shows the linear regression between less ice cover in autumn and winter the temperature in the following:

Again, these temperature anomalies are similar to the two shown above, the temperature map for this March and that from the model of Petoukhov and Semenov.

An observed correlation (as in this diagram and in Jaiser et al.) is still not a causal connection, therefore Liu et al. also made a series of model calculations, but with a different model (the American model from NCAR). Further, they calculated a larger ensemble (20 runs with varying initial conditions), which makes the results statistically more robust. As a boundary condition in the model they took the observed reduction of the ice cover in the Arctic and calculated ensembles with or without the ice decrement. The result of these simulations for the temperature is as follows:

Again cold in Siberia and Europe, warmer over the Labrador Sea, and a cold band across North America. From the model, we know that it's not just a correlation, but a causal relationship: In the model setting the initial ice cover results in cold temperatures over Europe, just as in Petoukhov and Semenov. The associated air pressure maps are similar. 

Liu et al. also have dealt with whether alternatively the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could explain the temperature anomalies.  They showed that these natural oscillations lead to different spatial patterns and inter-annual fluctuations - they close out those arguments as causes. 

They also have examined the relationship with snow and come to the conclusion that additional open water in the Arctic humidifies the air, leading to increased snowfall.  The snowpack is important because even the strong March sun can hardly heat up snow-covered land; the white surface simply reflects the sun's rays. According to Liu et al.:

 We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in the recent cold and snowy winters. 

However, the taz quoted [German paper] yesterday the spokesman of the German Weather Service [DWD in German] as saying that if there was a direct relationship with the sea ice cover,  the entire winter would have to be very cold in Germany.  I think this trivial argument with which he would like to wipe from the table the climate research results shown above is pretty embarrassing for the DWD.  Of course open water in the Arctic  does not override the stochastic weather patterns.  There will always be warm and cold periods. In all these studies it comes down to changing probabilities in the prevailing weather patterns: Petoukhov and Semenov estimate that the probability of cold winter extremes could triple, that is even in the Abstract. One wonders whether the DWD representative has read the relevant studies at all - and if not, why he feels the urge to comment on them in the media. Unfortunately, there is a certain tradition that meteorologists dealing with weather are not familiar with climate science. 

In my view, the above studies provide strong evidence for a link between Arctic ice loss due to global warming, more frequent winter high-pressure air masses, especially over the Atlantic-European part of the Arctic, and an associated influx of cold air to Europe. As we have often seen in recent winters - for example in a spectacular way in the first half of February 2012. 

Still this is not a slam dunk - the studies are relatively new and need to be discussed intensively in the professional community and confirmed by further research, or perhaps again questioned. This is the normal process of scientific debate, through which at the end findings are robust and widely accepted, such as the fact that our emissions of greenhouse gases warm the climate. 

P.S. (29.3.) I see now that the climate lie detector has put its finger on the wonderful products of the Welt Online, which a few days ago once again presented the proverbial "Russian scientists who predict an ice age" warning of a "frozen pig cycle."  There is no better way of actually disproving the theories of  solar fluctuations, when even diehard "climate skeptics" can not find any more respectable arguments. This time, even sponsored by Gazprom (for real!).  Anyone interested in the subject of climate and sun could read What role does the sun play? [Maybe Eli will translate some day for some carrots.]
References

Jaiser R, Dethloff K, Handorf D, Rinke A, Cohen J (2012) Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation.Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 64th doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu JP, Curry JA, Wang HJ, Song MR, Horton RM (2012) Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109 (11):4074-4079; doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Petoukhov V, Semenov VA (2010) A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 115th doi: 10.1029/2009jd013568

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